Who Are the Trade War Losers? Just Look at the Earnings Rolling In

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It’s possible that the economy is strong enough to make up for the drag caused by the trade confrontations. United Technologies, an industrial conglomerate, on Tuesday raised its profits forecast even as it reported higher costs because of the tariffs.

But executives on earnings calls are saying their companies have only just begun to feel the effect of the tariffs. Their second-quarter results, for instance, reflected steel and aluminum bought at lower prices than exist in the market today. And few of the other tariffs that Mr. Trump has proposed have gone into effect yet. That could change by the end of the year, including an additional $200 billion of tariffs on imports from China. Mr. Trump is also pushing for tariffs on autos, though these may not be imposed on European imports if progress is made in the talks announced on Wednesday.

General Motors, which reported earnings on Wednesday, showed the many ways in which President Trump’s trade actions could damage the company’s business. Higher steel costs were one of the reasons General Motors slashed its profits forecast for 2018, a move that helped send its stock down 4.6 percent on Wednesday.

The company’s costs didn’t rise because it is purchasing a large amount of foreign steel that is subject to tariffs. Over 90 percent of the steel used in General Motors’ production comes from the United States, said Tom E. Henderson, a company spokesman. But the tariffs have pushed up prices for all steel, including American, and put a burden on even companies that rely on domestic suppliers. Higher prices for steel and aluminum could add as much as $700 million to General Motors’ costs this year, Chuck Stevens, the company’s chief financial officer, said on Wednesday.

General Motors sells a large number of vehicles in China, where it has significant operations. Mr. Trump’s actions against China could end up provoking Chinese consumers to boycott G.M.’s cars — a real possibility, given that those same buyers recently shunned South Korean autos and other products. But Mr. Stevens said Wednesday that the company had not seen any sign of a boycott.

General Motors cannot rule out the possibility that Mr. Trump will impose tariffs on auto imports, and other countries will retaliate with their own measures. The company said last month that auto tariffs could lead to higher prices and job losses. When asked about the auto tariffs on Wednesday’s call, G.M.’s chief executive, Mary T. Barra, said: “I would just, again, focus on the fact that I think it’s in everyone’s best interest to have a strong United States auto industry. It’s a big provider of quality jobs.”

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